상조내구제 13일 롯데마트 직원들이 스마트팜 채소인 ‘내일농장 깻잎’과 ‘스마트팜 오이’를 소개하고 있다.
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40%가 “한국 경기 둔화할 것”반도체 기업 47% “확장 경영”성장 제약 요인 1위는 ‘고환율’
제조 기업 10곳 중 8곳은 올해 경제 흐름을 신중하게 보고 안정 중심의 경영 기조를 고수하는 것으로 나타났다.
13일 대한상공회의소가 지난달 1~12일 전국 2208개 제조 기업을 대상으로 실시한 ‘기업이 바라본 2026 경제·경영 전망’ 조사 결과를 보면, 응답 기업의 40.1%가 올해 전반적인 한국의 경기 흐름을 지난해보다 둔화할 것으로 전망했다. ‘지난해와 비슷할 것’이라고 답한 기업은 36.3%를 차지했다. ‘지난해보다 소폭 개선될 것’이라고 답한 기업은 22.2%, ‘뚜렷하게 개선될 것’이라는 응답은 1.4%에 그쳤다.
이들 기업의 신중한 경기 전망은 올해 경영 계획에도 반영됐다. 올해 경영 계획 핵심 기조를 묻자 기업 79.4%가 ‘유지 경영’ 또는 ‘축소 경영’으로 답했다. 2년 전 조사와 비교하면, 축소나 유지를 택한 보수적 경영 기조 답변이 14.4%포인트 상승했다. 제조업 전반에서 안정과 위험 관리에 무게를 둔 것으로 해석된다.
업종별로 보면 올해 호황이 예상되는 반도체의 경우 47.0%가 경영 계획 기조를 ‘확장 경영’이라고 답했다. 제약·바이오와 화장품도 확장을 택한 기업이 각각 39.5%, 39.4%로 전체 평균(20.6%)을 넘어섰다. 반면 내수 침체와 저가 공세 등으로 부진한 섬유와 철강은 ‘축소 경영’을 택한 비중이 큰 업종으로 조사됐다. 섬유는 20.0%, 철강은 17.6%가 축소 경영을 택했다.
올해 경영 계획 수립에 가장 큰 영향을 미친 핵심 변수로 기업 절반 이상이 ‘경기·수요 전망’(52.0%)을 꼽았다. 이어 ‘비용 및 수익성 요인’(25.9%), ‘기업 내부 사정’(7.6%), ‘정책·규제 환경 변화’(7.5%), ‘대외 통상 위험’(7.0%) 순이었다.
올해 실적 목표를 어느 수준으로 설정했는지 묻자, 내수와 수출 부문 모두 ‘지난해 실적 수준을 목표로 한다’는 기업이 각각 42.2%, 48.8%로 다수를 차지했다.
절반 가까운 기업들이 올해 성장을 가장 제약할 위험 요인(복수응답)으로 대외 변수를 꼽았다. ‘고환율 및 변동성 확대’(47.3%)가 가장 많았다.
이어 ‘유가·원자재가 변동성’(36.6%), ‘트럼프발 통상 불확실성’(35.9%), ‘세계 경기 둔화’(32.4%) 순으로 조사됐다. ‘기업 부담 입법 강화’(19.4%), ‘고령화 등 내수구조 약화’(12.5%) 등 국내 요인을 지목한 기업은 소수를 차지했다.
강석구 대한상의 조사본부장은 “올해 수출과 내수가 동반 개선될 것이라는 전망에도 불구하고, 산업별 회복 격차와 고환율 등 대외 불확실성으로 인해 기업들의 신중한 경영 기조는 한동안 이어질 것”이라고 말했다.<p><span><a href="https://sydivorce.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">수원형사변호사</a> <a href="https://karenannmassage.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">당일 폰테크</a> <a href="https://www.startlaw.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">대구이혼전문변호사</a> <a href="https://www.seonyullaw.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">수원변호사</a> <a href="https://vcbfgr.tistory.com/4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">한게임머니상</a> <a href="https://www.megapass-skbroadband-powercomm.com/board/board.html?code=inter01_board1&type=v&num1=999976&num2=00000" target="_blank" rel="noopener">인터넷티비현금많이주는곳</a> <a href="https://sydivorce.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">분당강제추행변호사</a> <a href="https://sydivorce.com/board_hfHJ52/5407" target="_blank" rel="noopener">의정부이혼변호사</a> <a href="https://www.sylaw-firm.com/case/index.jsp?scategory_fk=6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">안양상간소송변호사</a> <a 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